Slow Burning Coal

Changes in electricity consumption are a rough and ready proxy for GDP growth. In the first five months of this year, China’s electricity consumption grew by 5.8%. In the same period last year, it grew by 12%. To this Bystander that feels like a better measure of the extent of the current slowdown than the official GDP numbers.

One other irregular but related measure of economic activity is how much coal is stacked up at the docks. China generates more than two-thirds of its electricity from coal. There is a lot of it right now. Coal stockpiles at China’s largest coal port, Qinhuangdao, reached 8.8 million tonnes earlier this month, up from 7.8 million tonnes at the end of last month and approaching record high of 9.2. million tonnes in November 2008 during the depths of the global financial crisis. Typically, stocks are in the 6 million-7 million tonnes range.

It is a similar story at Hebei’s other coal ports, Huanghua and Tangshan, and at Guangzhou and Fangcheng in the south. In all there are around 20 million tonnes of coal with nowhere to go. The six large power generators in eastern and southern China now have enough coal stockpiled for more than a month’s generation.