Power Consumption Becoming A Less Reliable Proxy For China’s Growth

We have long used changes in electricity consumption in China as a proxy for economic growth in the country. Like all such irregular economic indicators we know that it is a rough and ready approximation, but serviceable as a directional guide. So we should note that as China’s economy becomes more dependent on service industries, it may be becoming less serviceable in that regard. The case is newly laid out by Bloomberg News:

The country divides its economic data into three segments: primary industries, which include agriculture and livestock; secondary, comprised of manufacturing and construction; and tertiary, which includes services and logistics. Electricity consumption in secondary industries grew less than 5 percent in each of the four months through June compared with 10 percent to 14 percent during the same period in 2011, government data show. The primary group’s consumption fell from a year earlier in March, April and May. The tertiary group’s power consumption, by comparison, grew more than 10 percent from a year earlier for most of the first half.

Bloomberg’s conclusion:

A stagnation in electricity output that fanned speculation China’s slowdown is intensifying may instead be evidence of an accelerated transition to a more services-based economy.

Advertisements

2 Comments

Filed under Economy

2 responses to “Power Consumption Becoming A Less Reliable Proxy For China’s Growth

  1. eldani

    this is argument was firstly laid out by ting lu at BAML. frankly i think it’s just an attempt to rationalize the slowdown away. was industry composition that much different a year ago? no. how much was it growing then? 10%. how much is it growing now? 0-2%.

  2. Pingback: Business Buzz – Tmall Hits Heights, Managing Conflict and Paypal Loses Major Account | Agenda - Beijing's Premier Business Magazine

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s