Is it China, not South Korea as long assumed, that has the refugees from the East dilemma that West Germany faced after the collapse of the Berlin Wall? North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, now returned home from his visit to China, can hold over his hosts the prospect of millions of his impoverished countrymen flooding across the country’s northeastern border in the event of a collapse of his regime. To forestall such an event, Beijing, Kim’s argument would go, has to prop him up economically and go along with whatever quixotic turn he takes on the nuclear talks.
On this trip Kim got promises of economic aid and yielded no ground on the six-party nuclear disarmament talks. The later was a rebuff, and there were signs of impatience with Kim on Beijing’s part that went beyond its usual frustration. We hear the discussion between Kim and President Hu Jintao was fractious at times. Xinhua, once it acknowledged the visit, which it did only after Kim had left, pointedly described it as ‘unofficial’. The photograph accompanying the report showed a robust President Hu Jintao towering over a gaunt Kim. There was a noticeable distance between the two leaders.
We have long thought that the North Korean regime makes logical deductions from imperfect information. What may be missing from its calculation is China’s opportunity cost from being seen to be beholden to Pyongyang: a diminution of its credibility as a regional or world power. and that is weighing more heavily in Beijing’s mind. Increasing Chinese investment in North Korea is a way to reestablish its political clout via the backdoor of the economy.
China Bystander 