IT WAS ONLY to be expected that China would roll out the red carpet for visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin and that his host, Xi Jinping, would say all the right things about deepening their two countries’ friendship without limits.
Yet, in contrast to Putin, there was something measured in Xi’s tone. Yes, the display of unity was present, a united front as a force for global stability in the face of US-created chaos. Yet, it is hard to escape the sense that Xi sees the China-Russia relationship as one more aspect of China’s projection of global power to be managed to Beijing’s advantage rather than the unalloyed friendship that Putin portrays.
The limits to the friendship without limits are becoming increasingly apparent. Xi’s call for a political solution to the war in Ukraine was not a ringing endorsement of Russia’s war aims, even if he did not provide any details of what that might look like.
There remains much in the way Russia is waging the war that makes Xi uncomfortable, including Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons. Prolonging the war also makes Xi’s efforts to weaken the ties between Europe and the United States more difficult.
A Chinese peace proposal made early in the war that was favourable to Moscow has been largely ignored. However, by gathering dust, it allows Xi to maintain that Beijing has maintained a consistent position in calling for a diplomatic settlement.
The United States’ threat of yet more sanctions on China for supplying assistance to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine if there is a hint of military support weighs on Xi’s calculations.
He would not want more sanctions while China’s economy is far from in full flow and struggling to resolve structural problems, such as those that caused the property crisis.
Trade discussions played a significant role in Putin’s visit, and the Russian leader brought a huge trade delegation with him. Since the Ukraine war started, bilateral trade has increased by half as much again, to $140 billion.
However, China is emerging with the upper hand, importing vast quantities of Russian energy on the cheap while Russia has become a market for surplus Chinese production of manufactured goods, from cars to electronics, freeing up Russian industry for war production.
While several new trade agreements were signed, there was no announcement on the potential construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would have signalled an increase in Beijing’s support to Moscow.
Xi still sees Putin as his friend and key to reshaping a US-led world order, but increasingly on his terms.
China Bystander 