More unusual weather is in the forecast for the final three months of what has already been a highly untypical year of drought and floods, according to the latest seasonal forecast from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the source of the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) regional weather outlook maps (snapshot of the latest below; full map).
As northern China heads into its dry season, there is likely to be heavier than usual rains in central China between October and December (the darker green area on the map, left). However, in the south, barely over the summer’s floods, dryer than usual weather is in the forecast for the same period (the orange areas).
Temperatures are likely to unseasonably warm across the country, and especially in the southwest, though that stands in contrast to the prediction in August by Jiao Meiyan, deputy chief of China Meteorological Administration, that winter will be severely cold.
Meanwhile, rain has returned to Hainan, the most recent province to have been inundated by flooding, disrupting the lives of 2.7 million people across the island.
The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has just updated its Asia regional map of natural disasters it is monitoring, including its weather forecast into November. Snapshot below; full map here. Heavier than normal rainfall is expected to continue into November in north, central China. The good news is that the area forecast to be affected is much smaller than when OCHA last forecast (into October) about a month back and the rains will be less intense.
After the spring’s droughts and summer’s floods, winter will be severely cold, according to Jiao Meiyan, deputy chief of China Meteorological Administration. He told Xinhua that China has been experiencing weather this year much like that in 1998 when the El Nino and La Nina climate systems in the Pacific combined in a distinctive way known as the Southern Oscillation that stalls weather systems around the world. Wikipedia has a more detailed explanation, and a discussion about whether it is caused by global warming.
The salient point is that historically that combination of El Nino and La Nina, which occurs every three to seven years, is associated with severe droughts and floods around the world, as we have seen this year from the eastern U.S., to Russia, Pakistan and Eastern Europe as well as China.