Tag Archives: Bo Xilai

Hu Next?

Guangdong party chief Hu Chunhua THE CRITICAL PROMOTIONS for China’s next generation of leaders are still a year away when five of the seven Politburo Standing Committee members reach mandatory retirement age, but the jockeying for position will be continuing at the party plenum now being held.

One of the front-runners to be the country’s next president, Hu Chunhua (left), is taking a leaf out of the incumbent Xi Jinping’s playbook for how to become China’s top leader. Hu has been talked of for several years as a likely successor to Xi, but the Guangdong Party boss is maintaining an ultra-low profile, just as Xi did as he eased ahead of the early front-runner to succeed President Hu Jintao, the now prime minister Li Keqiang.

In many ways, Guangdong is the bellwether for China’s economic reform. Hu’s success — or otherwise — in restructuring the provincial economy and sustaining the economic parity of its capital, Guangzhou, with Beijing and Shanghai will be a litmus test of whether he could do the same with whole economy — and whether he could do so while maintaining social stability in a rich, coastal and relatively liberal province that looks more like tomorrow’s China than the under-developed tough-to-govern inland provinces that Hu has previously run.

Hu has pursued cautious economic reform in Guangdong since taking over at the end of 2012 from the sloganeering Wang Yang. He has promoted unglamorous small and medium-sized businesses but also been careful to align with the edicts of central leadership. Hu’s policies for the province have echoed Xi’s line about the “quality and efficiency” of economic growth and in setting lower growth targets. He has promoted the move up the value chain by Guangdong’s manufacturers and into services while moving labour intensive businesses into poor inland districts.

His predecessor Wang’s setbacks — he failed to get promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee at the November 2012 party congress at around the same time as the high-flying Chongqing party boss Bo Xilai was being brought low — will not have been lost on Hu. He has already survived two incidents that could easily have finished a political career.

He was governor of Hebei when the tainted baby formula scandal started there. In his next job, party chief in Inner Mongolia, violent protests broke out against the destruction of traditional Mongol grazing lands by Han-controlled mining interests. Hu cracked down on these and tripled per capita income in his five years but established a dubious record on environmentalism, a factor that now weighs more heavily in political calculations for promotion.

There is no doubt that Hu’s rise has been rapid. A staff position with the Communist Youth League (CYL) in Tibet in 1983 led to governor of Hebei province in 2008, party boss of Inner Mongolia by 2010 and then the same role in a high-profile province, Guangdong, in 2012 along with promotion to the Politburo. In 1996-99, Hu studied for a master’s degree in economics at the Central Party School, where officials marked out for future high office get sent.

Still in his early 50s he is young even by the standards of the prospective sixth generation of leaders. A career in the CYL, where he became a protege of Hu Jintao (no relation), is the bureaucrat’s rather than a princeling’s to power.

Hu has demonstrated both the caution and the orthodoxy of officialdom and his deeper policy beliefs remain somewhat obscure. Both in Tibet and Inner Mongolia, he took a hard line on security and in Guangdong, which has long had a more vibrant local press than most of the rest of China, he has been criticised for tightening censorship.

Hu has also cracked down on Guangdong’s drugs and sex industries and gone after officials who have done well enough out of their offices to be able to keep and support their families abroad. Hu has bought some 800 ‘luoguan’ to book, again moves in line with Xi’s anti-corruption drive.

Bo’s disgrace opened avenues for loyalists, down which Hu has advanced. Whether he completes the journey to the highest offices may turn on the influence that Hu Jintao can wield in the inevitable factional horse-trading. The corruption charges against another Hu Jintao protege, Wan Qingliang, the party boss of Guangzhou, may suggest Xi is constraining his predecessor, even if not as publicly as he is Hu Jintao’s predecessor, Jiang Zemin.

It will also depend on Hu’s own ability to keep his head down and out of trouble and Guangdong’s economy thriving.

A third factor, unknown at this point, is where Xi will come down. Will he consider Hu’s conservatism and reformist credentials suitable to carry on his policies? Will he back a fellow princeling or acknowledge that the presidency is due to return to Hu Jintao’s CYL faction?

Hu is regarded as a Hu Jintao version two and is familiarly known as ‘Little Hu’. Both men come from humble backgrounds. Hu was the son of a poor farmer in Hubei who made it to the elite Beijing University, where he took a bachelor’s degree in Chinese language and history, by dint of outstanding exam scores. Both were student leaders in their university days, rose through the CYL and cut their political teeth in troublesome provinces with ethnic minority populations, Gansu and Tibet, in the elder Hu’s case, Tibet and Inner Mongolia in the younger Hu’s case. Unusually for a senior Han official, he speaks fluent Tibetan. He also doesn’t die his hair.

Politically, they a both low-key, consensual leaders who advocate policies of social justice and economic equality. Both of those may be in tune with the party’s needs in 2022 when Xi’s successor starts to take over, and some rough edges to China’s economic rebalancing will be in need of smoothing.

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Zhou Yongkang Gets His Preordained Day In Court, Life Imprisonment

THE TIANJIN MUNICIPAL No. 1 Intermediate People’s Court has sentenced Zhou Yongkang to life imprisonment. The ruling follows the court’s conviction of the former head of the security apparatus on charges of bribery, abuse of power and disclosing state secrets.  The short trial was held behind closed doors on May 22nd, state media report.

Neither the verdict nor the sentence handed down on the most senior figure to be brought low by President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign comes as much of a surprise to this Bystander.

Zhou’s protege was the disgraced Chongqing Party boss Bo Xilai, who challenged Xi for the leadership. Bo is now in prison following his wife’s murder of British businessman Neil Heywood and a slew of bribery, embezzlement and abuse of power convictions. The charges against both men were narrowly economic, not specifically political.

However, for all the new leadership’s embrace of rule by law, both cases look a lot like politics by other means.

Zhou is the highest ranking Party official ever to have been found guilty of corruption. His trial broke the Party’s unofficial rule that the highest level officials don’t get prosecuted whatever their crimes. The public message may be that no official is above the law, but the internal one will be that no official is above Xi’s ever-growing authority.

Recognition of that may well mean than Zhou is the last ‘big tiger’ that will be netted by Xi’s anti-corruption campaign. Plenty of flies to be swatted yet though, and also some small tigers if they stand in the way of Xi’s reform plans.

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A Rare Win For China’s Rare Freshwater Fish

Environmentalists can celebrate a rare triumph. The environment ministry has stopped the Xiaonanhai hydroelectric dam project on the Yangtze River. The dam is being built by China Three Gorges Corp. Its site lies 40 kms upstream from Chongqing and 700 kms upstream of the company’s eponymous dam that has become a poster child for the environmental damage that can be wreaked by large-scale infrastructure projects.

The location is significant. The dam was championed by disgraced Chongqing Party boss Bo Xilai, who redrew the boundaries of a nature preserve so construction could go ahead. Environmentalists have campaigned vigorously against damming the river at that point. Its waters contain 189 species of freshwater fish found nowhere else, two score of which are endangered. Economists have condemned the dam for its cost — $3.75 billion to build and electricity generation at more than three times the cost per gigawatt of other hydroelectric dams along the river.

Both are good reasons to call a halt to the project. However, the ministry does not have a reputation for being the most fearsome prosecutor of its brief to protect the environment in the face of the power of the ‘hydro-industrial complex’. Would it have vetoed the dam if its sponsor had been someone in better political standing than Bo?

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The Case Of Zhou Yongkang And Politics By Other Means

THE FATE OF Zhou Yongkang, former head of the security apparatus and the most senior figure to be brought low by President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign, neatly underscores the difference between rule of law and rule by law. The 72-year old Zhou faces charges of bribery, abuse of power and the intentional disclosure of state secrets, a formal indictment that, for all the putative improvements to the judicial system, will lead to a guilty verdict as surely as night follows day.

However, Zhou, a former Politburo member, is far from alone among senior Party figures that have enriched themselves and friends and families by dint of their position. The investigation and criminal charges against him are politics by other means.

Zhou’s protege was the disgraced Chongqing Party boss Bo Xilai. Bo challenged Xi for the leadership and is now in prison following his wife’s murder of British businessman Neil Heywood and a slew of bribery, embezzlement and abuse of power convictions.

Scores of Zhou acolytes in Sichuan province and in the oil industry, a powerful vested interest that poses obstacles to Xi’s economic reforms, have also been investigated and in many cases prosecuted. Before becoming security chief Zhou was a senior official at state-owned oil giant China National Petroleum Corp. and Party boss in the southwestern province.

The charges against Zhou are narrowly economic, not specifically political, even though the Supreme Court’s annual work report to last month’s National Peoples Congress accused both Zhou and Bo of “trampling on the rule of law, violating the party’s unity, [and] engaging in unauthorized political activities”. Narrowing the scope makes it easier for Beijing to stage an ‘open’ trial and keep the focus on the anti-corruption campaign rather than subject itself to the risks of airing the Party’s dirty laundry in public.

Zhou’s case will be heard in a court in Tianjin, in accordance with a practice of trying senior party officials in cities where the accused has no power base and local court officials can be relied upon to rule by law.

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Zhou To Face Trial Shows Xi’s Firming Grip

ZHOU YONGKANG, THE former and much feared head of China’s security apparatus who has not been seen in public since October last year, is under arrest while he is investigated by state prosecutors on charges of corruption, adultery and leaking the country and Party’s secrets, state media has said. He has also been expelled from the Party.

Zhou, a member of the Politburo before he retired two years ago and an ally of the disgraced former Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai, is the most senior official brought down by President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive, and the biggest loser in the power struggle around Xi’s ascent as China’s paramount leader. Zhou’s fate has been a matter of speculation for some time as he has been under Party investigation for more than a year, but the timing of the announcement of criminal proceedings suggests authorities believe they now have sufficient evidence for a trial, and that Xi feels confident enough with his grip on power to proceed with such a sensitive case in public.

However, the inclusion of leaking state secrets among the charges may provide the excuse to keep any trial itself closed. Bo’s open trial did not go as well as a propaganda exercise as authorities would have liked: Bo’s public image, though diminished, survived.

As well as his control over the vast domestic security sector, Zhou held sway over the oil industry and Sichuan province. Many of his loyalists and recipients of his patronage are also under investigation as his clique is dismantled. The question now for its head is the likely sentence he faces. This Bystander believes Zhou’s would be more severe than Bo’s life imprisonment, so likely a suspended death sentence. Senior officials may no longer be untouchable but they remain unexecutable.

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Zhou Anti-Graft Probe Tests Limits of Xi’s Power

IT COMES AS little surprise to this Bystander – or to most others – that former security chief Zhou Yongkang is under investigation. The announcement that Zhou is suspected of serious Party disciplinary violations – for which read, serious corruption – only formally confirms rumours that have been circulating for months – rumours that were informally confirmed by Zhou’s disappearance from public view since last October and investigations of his family and dozens of associates in the oil industry and security circles.

As tigers go, Zhou is the biggest to be brought down by an anti-corruption campaign since the time of the Gang of Four; he headed the Ministry of Public Security until his retirement in 2012, oversaw the state oil sector, and was a member of the Politburo standing committee.

By disgracing such a senior powerbroker, albeit one past the zenith of his political power, President Xi Jinping is sending a clear signal to both his political adversaries and to the public: his anti-corruption campaign will be wide-ranging and no mere exercise in frightening off political rivals, though it is certainly that, too. Zhou was a supporter of Bo Xilai, the former mayor of Chongqing who was given a life sentence last year for corruption and abuse of power after challenging Xi for the leadership. He also remained a powerful figure in the state oil industry, and thus an obstacle to Xi’s economic reforms.

Zhou’s investigation will also be seen as Xi signaling that he believes he has consolidated his power sufficiently that no official or politician is beyond the reach of his anti-corruption campaign. That is a message that will play well with most Chinese, who are at the sharp end of petty official corruption day-in, day-out. Yet popularity is one thing and political power another. Whether a Party investigation of Zhou turns into court proceedings will indicate how absolute Xi’s political control over the Party has become.

Party discipline means expulsion and house arrest without public prosecution. Zhou’s case indicates that Xi isn’t yet in a position to antagonize all the high-level power brokers and elders in the Party, notably former President Jiang Zemin, by initiating court proceedings that could lead to lengthy jail terms or the death penalty – and the lid being publicly pulled back on the multimillion dollar business enterprises of many of the ruling elite and their families. For now, suffice it to say that the long-standing understanding that serving or former Politburo standing committee members will not be incriminated in anti-graft probes clearly no longer holds.

That is a more startling message for the political elite than the one to lower level officials have had to swallow, that the days of flaunting their perks and privileges and expecting expensive gifts as a right of office are over. So far, according to statement’s by various judicial officials, 51,306 officials were investigated for corruption and related economic crimes in 2013, a twelfth more than in the previous year. That number included 20 ministerial- and vice ministerial-level officials, about half of whom can be considered associates of Zhou.

Xi advocates that corruption threatens the Party’s long-term viability. One common facet of industrializing countries that successfully move up the economic development ladder is that they reform and strengthen their institutions. In China, the Party remains the paramount institution, so reforming that is Xi’s priority. For now though he is emphasizing clean governance over the rule of law, by using top-down political power to set the Party on what he believes is the correct course. The fine line he has to walk is between cleaning up the Party and tearing it down in the process of tearing down his political opponents.

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Bo Xilai Is Expelled From China’s Legislature; Let The Trial Begin

Disgraced Bo Xilai has had another indignity heaped upon him. He has been expelled from the National People’s Congress. The significance of that is that it removes his legislator’s immunity from prosecution. A criminal case against him will now certainly move ahead.

What the charges will be is not yet known. When he was expelled from the Party late last month he was accused of abuse of power, bribe-taking and violating party discipline, a pro-forma rap sheet. His wife, Gu Kailai, was convicted in August in connection with the murder of British businessman Neil Heywood, while Bo’s former fixer in Chongqing when he was Party boss there, police chief Wang Lijun, has also been convicted for his part in an affair that has rocked the top echelons of the Party in the run up to the leadership transition.

By leaving the punishments to the courts, the leadership has been able to delineate this as an exceptional case. Few, though,  think, murder apart, that abuse of power and bribe-taking within elite circles is anything exceptional beyond that in this case it spilled so spectacularly out into the open.

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Bo Xilai: Brought Down, And Now Out

Bo Xilai, brought down in the most serious political corruption case to hit the Party in years, is now finally out. The disgraced former rising star has been expelled from the Party for taking bribes and his “grave responsibility” in the murder of British businessman Neil Heywood, a crime for which his wife, Gu Kailai, was convicted and his former right hand man, police chief Wang Lijun, was sentenced to prison for 15 years. Like Gu and Wang, the former Chongqing Party boss will now be prosecuted in court. The Party’s charges against him include maintaining “abnormal sexual relations with several women”. Interesting to see what, if anything, comes out in court about those, though they sound a bit smear-like to this Bystander. Either way, we expect a harsh sentence.

Bo’s trial would complete the ring fencing of an inconvenient scandal that the Party’s top leadership has worked hard to present as an isolated incident, not evidence of systemic corruption and an uncomfortably common connection between wealth and power. We expect a dose of congratulatory commentary in state media commending the Party for its steadfast fight against corruption and transparency in its self-discipline.

Yet Bo’s case has provided an awkward back drop to the run up to the leadership transition that, it has now been announced, will formally start at a Party congress called for November 8th. That is a further sign that the winners and losers have been settled in the in-fighting that the rest of the world doesn’t get to see. However, the very opacity of a system in which Party, state and government are effectively one, and power is founded on personal connections and factions, has been left looking increasingly antiquated for a modern state.

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Wang Fingers His Former Boss, Bo

The trial of ex-Chongqing police chief Wang Lijun has implicated for the first time the city’s disgraced Party boss Bo Xilai in the murder of British businessman Neil Heywood. Bo was not mentioned by name. Wang spoke of the “Chongqing committee’s main responsible person at the time”, but that would be Bo.

Wang was “angrily rebuked and had his ears boxed,” state media reported somewhat quaintly, for telling Bo that Bo’s wife, Gu Kailai, was suspected of murdering Heywood, a crime to which Gu pleaded guilty at her trial last month. Wang also told the court of corruption cases involving close business associates of Bo.

Wang’s remarks brings a criminal prosecution of Bo a step closer, either for complicity in covering up Heywood’s death, or on politically more sensitive corruption charges. Either way a trial would complete the political downfall of a charismatic but divisive leader who only a few months ago had been seen as a leading candidate for promotion to the Politburo.

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Wang Lijun’s trial seeks to tidy up another loose end in the Bo case

Swift and measured justice is the order of the day in political China. Next week, Wang Lijun, 52, the former police chief and hatchet man for disgraced Chongqing party boss, Bo Xilai, will go on trial in Chengdu on charges of defection, taking bribes and legal surveillance.

The hearing isn’t likely to last more than a day. Not a lot of new detail will emerge.

Wang fled to the U.S. consulate in Chengdu in February, staying there for 24 hours and starting the chain of events that let to Bo’s wife, Gu Kailai, being convicted for the murder of British businessmen Neil Heywood. State media has not said whether Wang intends to contest any of the charges against him–as Gu did not against hers–not that doing so would necessary reduce his chances of being convicted.

Bribery charges can be capital offenses and defection charges can carry life imprisonment. The Party leadership will want to maintain the narrative that it has been laying down, that this is a self-contained case and not one symptomatic of a deeper malaise within the Chinese body politic. Gu received a suspended death sentence last month after confessing to Heywood’s murder but going along with the Party line. Wang is likely to do the same.

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