Omicron Continues To Challenge China’s Zero-Covid

Chart showing 7-day rolling average of daily new confirmed Covid-19 cases.

WORKD REACHES US of panic food buying in Guangdong. Residents are stripping supermarket shelves bare, fearing the possibility of a Shanghai-style citywide lockdown following the discovery of new Covid-19 cases in Guangdong’s provincial capital. Authorities are due to start mass testing. Given Beijing’s doubling down on its zero-Covid policy, restrictions on movement will surely follow.

Meanwhile, Shanghai authorities are suggesting some slight easing of the severe lockdown residents there have been under for more than a week. They will categorise districts into three types according to the level of risk from Covid. Once a section achieves the least risky status, some of the strict restrictions on movement may be eased locally.

That will still take some time to pass. All infectious cases will have to be moved to within centralised Winter Olympic-like ‘closed-loop’ central facilities first so the outbreak is contained there and cannot spread. Jilin in the northeast is only just coming out of its lockdown after 33-days.

China’s largest city and financial and commercial hub is still struggling to provide the locked-down with basic food supplies and medical care. However, reports say the situation has stopped getting worse and is improving in some districts as the logjams in distribution start to ease.

Shanghai has experienced China’s worst coronavirus outbreak since the early days of the pandemic. The under vaccination of the elderly and relative ineffectiveness of China’s vaccines — Sinovac cuts the death rate tenfold for over-80s but is roughly half as effective as the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine — have painted Beijing into a corner.

It has little option but to stick with its zero-Covid policy despite its inability to deal with the rapid spread of the high-contagious but less fatal Omicron variant. Nonetheless, zero-Covid now no longer means zero local cases but zero local cases outside quarantine facilities.

Attempting to live with the virus as other countries are now doing would likely result in a politically unacceptable wave of deaths and hospitalisations until widespread vaccination with more effective vaccines could be achieved on a mass scale. That would require a national roll-out of an indigenous mRNA vaccine that would take months to administer the initial two shots.

It would also undercut the official narrative of how China’s success in keeping the death rate low by international standards stands in contrast with Western governments’ willingness to accept high death rates among their citizens in order to reopen economies.

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