ONE BELT, ONE ROAD is ambitious. A network of roads, railways, ports, pipelines and other infrastructure that will crisscross China and Central Asia connecting to Europe and Africa via land routes (the Belt) and shipping lanes (the maritime Road).
It already covers two-thirds of the world’s population, one-third of global GDP and about a quarter of the world’s trade in goods and service. China, President Xi Jinping announced at this weekend’s Belt and Road forum in Beijing (seen above), proposes to throw $124 billion at developing his vision of the next great engine of global trade.
Those monies would be a downpayment on what is estimated to be $900 billion of related investment, financed by a variety of Chinese or China-backed banks, funds and investing and development institutions. One Belt, One Road will, depending on your point of view, be 21st-century merchant hegemony writ large or the world’s largest platform for regional collaboration.
Leaders from 29 countries, the heads of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, the UN, and a host of other dignitaries attended the forum this weekend, including most notably Russian President Vladimir Putin (absentees include the leaders of the United States, Japan and India). All the attendees, no doubt, will have had their private fears and hopes about the scale of this project to redraw over many decades the geoeconomic, and likely, the geopolitical map of Eurasia.
Whether China will hold the course, especially under Xi Jinping’s successors, is one question about the project. There are also legitimate concerns that some investment gets misallocated and ends up on being spent on ‘highways to nowhere’ and other projects that never should be built in the first place. Moreover, private and non-Chinese investment will be needed as well (and be a bellwether of global acceptance of the idea).
However, such is the scale of One Belt, One Road that even if only a fraction of it materialises, it will make Eurasia look a very different place.