THERE IS A sprinkling of optimism, albeit tempered with uncertainty, to the International Monetary Fund’s latest update to its World Economic Outlook. This includes an upward revision to the near-term growth prospects for China on the basis that the policy stimulus that helped deliver 2016’s 6.7% economic expansion will continue.
Strong infrastructure and real estate investment were the stimulative effects. One other consequence noted by the IMF was that deflation has come to an end with capacity cuts and higher commodity prices pushing producer-prices inflation into positive territory after four years.
On the strength of all that the IMF is raising its forecast for 2017’s GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points from its forecast in October to 6.5%.
The balance of risk, as the Fund acknowledges, is to the downside, for both China and the global economy. A shift to protectionism is among the more prominent risks along with a more severe slowdown in China.
That latter event could come if a continued reliance on stimulus measures, with the accompanying rapid expansion of credit, exacerbates the slow progress being made in addressing the issue of impaired corporate debt, especially in light of persistent government support for inefficient state-owned firms — all elevating the risk of the adjustment being disorderly the longer it is left.
Besides, before then, capital outflow pressures could make matters worse, especially given the uncertain external outlook.
The warning about continued reliance on stimulus measures repeats what the IMF said last October:
China’s growth stability owes much to macroeconomic stimulus measures that slow needed adjustments in both its real economy and financial sector.
The foreboding this time could be misplaced.
President Trump might make good his promise of 4% annual GDP growth in the United States and his maxim of ‘buy American, hire American’ turn out to be less protectionist than feared, strengthening demand in US trading partners. Or China could ride history’s tilt towards south-south trade harder, raising demand in its trading partners.
The IMF, for one, is not banking on any of those developments. It has left its forecast for China’s GDP growth in 2018 unchanged at 6.0%.