The November numbers for new bank loans in China give a reasonable sighting of the likely full-year numbers. The pace of new lending eased a tad in the month, at 522.9 billion yuan ($83.7 billion), but lending for the full year looks set to come in around 8.5 trillion yuan, up 13.8% on 2011, as monetary policy has remained accommodative all year to counter the economic slowdown.
Even though the economy is now showing repeated signs of rebounding, regardless of November’s weak trade figures, it seems likely to this Bystander that the central bank will keep monetary policy loose for the next few months, and continue its policy of pumping in short term cash as needed. Total social financing, a broad measure of liquidity that the central bank monitors closely, is expected to hit a record high this year. At 14.15 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of this year, it was up 2.6 trillion yuan from the same period in 2011. There is plenty of credit slopping around the economy. Global economic headwinds are still gusting strongly enough to rule out mopping it up yet in any significant way.
