Not very, is the answer to the question we posed about the stickiness of the initial deal between Beijing and Washington over the activist Chen Guangcheng. The deal’s second incarnation, now seemingly in the making, will let Chen go to the U.S. to study law, accompanied by his family. There, if history is prologue, he will fade into anonymity.
Beijing has in the past been ready to let dissidents and activists leave the country, if they go quietly. Chen’s flight from illegal house arrest by provincial officials in Shandong to the refuge of the U.S. embassy in Beijing and then his change of mind about staying in the country has brought more international attention to his case than Beijing is comfortable with. That has raised the hackles of interference in domestic affairs. But Chen is not of great importance to central government in the greater scheme of things, and certainly of lesser importance than he has become outside the country, particularly to those in the U.S. who see his case providing political capital in an election year. Beijing just wants the matter done with, so it can get on with dealing with its bigger problems.
It has made the point that if Chen is to go into exile, it will be on Beijing’s terms, not Washington’s. That sets a certain deterrent to would-be copycats. This has hardly been a high point in the China-U.S. relationship, even as it has simultaneously highlighted the fragility and importance of that relationship. History, we suspect, will ultimately judge the Chen affair as no more than a footnote in the development of the relationship and of the rule of law in China.
