Little Imminent Prospect Of Peace Along China’s Myanmar Border

Slow progress is being made at the truce talks China is hosting between the Myanmar government and the autonomy-seeking Kachin Independence Organization (KIO). Two more days of talks were held last week in Ruili, a border crossing town on the Yunnan side. Naypyidaw’s chief negotiator said afterwards that a lasting truce would not be quickly achieved. Aung Thaung, a former general who is also Myanmar’s industry minister, said the process could take more than three years.

That would not please Beijing, which wants stability along its western reaches and control over what is thought to be an arms smuggling route to Tibetean dissidents in western China, seemingly newly active. Nor would it satisfy Naypyidaw, which needs political settlements with its ethnic minorities to bolster its case for a lifting of international sanctions against the country.

Some 60,000 Kachin have fled their homes in the remote and mountainous region over the past seven months following the breakdown of a 17-years long ceasefire. A few made it into China to seek refuge with relatives, but Beijing has discouraged mass cross-border migration, fearing a large influx of refuges. Instead they are gathering in ever larger numbers in makeshift camps along the border.

Meanwhile, armed skirmishes continue along the Myanmar side of the border with Yunnan between government forces and the KIO’s military wing, the Kachin Independence Army, despite two orders by Myanmar President Thein Sein to his military to end its operations in Kachin. One (unconfirmed) report suggested fighting had spilled at one point across the border into the Chinese province. Further talks between the Naypyidaw government and the KIO are be held, probably in February.