Gordon Orr, a director in the Shanghai office of McKinsey, a firm of management consultants, makes six predictions for China in 2011.
- Inflation in food prices will take longer than expected to control.
- Middle-class bankruptcies will expand dramatically.
- Minimum wages will rise, but productivity gains will outstrip labor costs.
- China’s economic growth will be lower than expected.
- China will step up its “invest out” program in the new five-year plan.
- The state will again try to reduce its ownership role in business.
This Bystander likes (in the sense of agrees with) 1, 3 and 5 (though this one is a bit of a cheat for 2011), but is less convinced by 2, 4 and 6. The short-term social disharmony they imply wouldn’t be tolerated in what is looking to be a critical and not always easy year for China’s development. What do you think?