More Forecasts Of A Slowing Chinese Economy

The OECD’s monthly snapshot of the outlook for the country’s economic activity over the coming six months, its composite leading indicators index (left), has been looking grimmer for some months. Its latest number, for September, has fallen below the baseline 100, implying, the OECD says, “that the level of industrial production will fall below its longer-term trend”. Put another way, the economy is going to slow. At 99.6 the index is at its lowest level since April 2009.

The OECD’s growth outlook is in line with the latest forecast for China’s economy from the World Bank, which expects growth slowing from 10% this year to 8.7% in 2011. The silver lining in the OECD’s numbers is that they show continuing growth in China’s export markets in the U.S., Japan and Germany.

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