Tag Archives: China

Slowing China’s Too-Rapid Property Slump

Restrictions placed on the property market in 2010 to deflate the real estate boom are quietly being lifted at the local level. In only six of China’s 47 municipalities that imposed them do they remain in full force. At central government level there have been a series of targeted steps taken to support the market, the latest being this week’s reopening of the discount residential mortgage market for first-time buyers by the big banks.

Four consecutive months of falling real estate prices have left policymakers concerned about the knock-on effect on the broader economy, from worsening unemployment to heightened stress on the financial system — not to mention a loss of personal wealth among government and Party officials.

It is the softening labour market that is uppermost in their minds. The HSBC preliminary purchasing managers’ index for September points to increasing job losses, even though the mini-stimulus introduced in the second quarter appears to have stabilized what was becoming a too fast a slowdown.

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Jack Ma’s Open Sesame For The Wide World

IT IS EASY to overdo the symbolism in the fact that the biggest tech company listed on a U.S. exchange will soon be Chinese. Jack Ma’s e-commerce giant, Alibaba, is expected to to be valued at at least $163 billion after its forthcoming initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, eclipsing the $100 billion valuation Facebook achieved with its IPO.

If the share sale raises the expected $21.1 billion, and that would be a conservative sum given some of the hype that has preceded the newly filed prospectus, Alibaba’s would set an new high-water mark for a technology IPO, and be the third largest IPO from any sector. If pre-sale demand for its American Depositary Shares proves to be exceptionally strong, the offering might be repriced so that it topped the record $22.1 billion that Agricultural Bank of China raised in July 2010. Final pricing is expected during the week of Sept. 15th.

For now, the company’s business is China-centric, and is being touted to foreign investors as a way to tap China’s economic rebalancing with the expectation that e-commerce will take an increasingly larger slice of a growing pie of consumer consumption, though prospective investors should note that rivals such as Baidu, Tencent and JD have growing aspirations to loosen Alibaba’s grip on the wallets of the country’s growing middle class. But in a letter to investors, Ma made plain his global ambition. “In the past decade, we measured ourselves by how much we changed China. In the future, we will be judged by how much progress we bring to the world.” It is then that the symbolism will take on more substance.

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Beijing Seen From Space

THIS BYSTANDER HAS only recently come across the photographs that U.S. astronaut Reid Wiseman has been tweeting from the International Space Station. This one of Beijing taken earlier this month is almost a work of art.

 

beijing-photographed-from-international-space-station

 

You can see more of Wiseman’s stunning space photography on his Twitter feed

 

 

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Zhou Anti-Graft Probe Tests Limits of Xi’s Power

IT COMES AS little surprise to this Bystander – or to most others – that former security chief Zhou Yongkang is under investigation. The announcement that Zhou is suspected of serious Party disciplinary violations – for which read, serious corruption – only formally confirms rumours that have been circulating for months – rumours that were informally confirmed by Zhou’s disappearance from public view since last October and investigations of his family and dozens of associates in the oil industry and security circles.

As tigers go, Zhou is the biggest to be brought down by an anti-corruption campaign since the time of the Gang of Four; he headed the Ministry of Public Security until his retirement in 2012, oversaw the state oil sector, and was a member of the Politburo standing committee.

By disgracing such a senior powerbroker, albeit one past the zenith of his political power, President Xi Jinping is sending a clear signal to both his political adversaries and to the public: his anti-corruption campaign will be wide-ranging and no mere exercise in frightening off political rivals, though it is certainly that, too. Zhou was a supporter of Bo Xilai, the former mayor of Chongqing who was given a life sentence last year for corruption and abuse of power after challenging Xi for the leadership. He also remained a powerful figure in the state oil industry, and thus an obstacle to Xi’s economic reforms.

Zhou’s investigation will also be seen as Xi signaling that he believes he has consolidated his power sufficiently that no official or politician is beyond the reach of his anti-corruption campaign. That is a message that will play well with most Chinese, who are at the sharp end of petty official corruption day-in, day-out. Yet popularity is one thing and political power another. Whether a Party investigation of Zhou turns into court proceedings will indicate how absolute Xi’s political control over the Party has become.

Party discipline means expulsion and house arrest without public prosecution. Zhou’s case indicates that Xi isn’t yet in a position to antagonize all the high-level power brokers and elders in the Party, notably former President Jiang Zemin, by initiating court proceedings that could lead to lengthy jail terms or the death penalty – and the lid being publicly pulled back on the multimillion dollar business enterprises of many of the ruling elite and their families. For now, suffice it to say that the long-standing understanding that serving or former Politburo standing committee members will not be incriminated in anti-graft probes clearly no longer holds.

That is a more startling message for the political elite than the one to lower level officials have had to swallow, that the days of flaunting their perks and privileges and expecting expensive gifts as a right of office are over. So far, according to statement’s by various judicial officials, 51,306 officials were investigated for corruption and related economic crimes in 2013, a twelfth more than in the previous year. That number included 20 ministerial- and vice ministerial-level officials, about half of whom can be considered associates of Zhou.

Xi advocates that corruption threatens the Party’s long-term viability. One common facet of industrializing countries that successfully move up the economic development ladder is that they reform and strengthen their institutions. In China, the Party remains the paramount institution, so reforming that is Xi’s priority. For now though he is emphasizing clean governance over the rule of law, by using top-down political power to set the Party on what he believes is the correct course. The fine line he has to walk is between cleaning up the Party and tearing it down in the process of tearing down his political opponents.

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Another Day, Yet Another Food Safety Scare

IT IS AN embarrassment for a company that says “food safety and quality assurance are guiding principles in delivering products that go above and beyond our customers’ requirements” when it is accused of supplying meat to fast-food chains that has gone past its sell-by date and other food safety violations. The Shanghai Municipal Food and Drug Administration is investigating Shanghai Husi Food, the local unit of OSI Group, a food supply group based near Chicago in the United States, for the “alleged use of expired raw food material production and the processing of it in food.” The allegations were first made in a report on Dragon TV.

McDonald’s and KFC’s owner Yum, the two top brands in China’s $174 billion fast-food market, are among the global fast-food franchises that OSI supplies in China. McDonald’s buys beef, chicken and lettuce from Shanghai Husi. Like KFC, it has immediately stopped buying from it.

For both chains, it is another food-safety setback following one in 2012 involving chicken pumped with excessive amounts of antibiotics. KFC’s owner Yum has also hand to contend with the reputational challenge of an outbreak of bird flu. This Bystander also recalls Wal-Mart being caught up in an incident in 2011 involving out-of-date duck meat. And we won’t even mention the case of fox allegedly being passed off as donkey meat.

OSI says it is dealing “directly and quickly” with what it says it believes is “an isolated event”. Most of all, this latest food-safety scare highlights the difficulty for any multinational in enforcing strict processes to assure quality and product safety along its supply chain when that chain is dependent in large part on local staff.

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China’s Second-Quarter GDP Growth Exceeds Expectations

CHINA’S SECOND-QUARTER growth came in at a slightly better-than-expected 7.5%. That is 0.1 percentage points up on the first quarter. Thank a series of targeted stimulus measures for that. Both retail sales and industrial production rose in the quarter.

With the stimulus effects likely to carry over to the third quarter, the official target of 7.5% GDP growth for the full year is back on track. Additional stimulus is unlikely for now except in the slowest growing provinces, where local authorities are still spending heavily, old school.

Low inflation leaves Beijing with some monetary policy flexibility, but cutting interest rates or banks’ reserve requirements to help business get more credit has to be balanced against reigniting asset prices, particularly property.

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A Beijing Boost For China’s Electric Vehicle Makers

CHINA SEES ELECTRIC vehicles as the way to leapfrog its way to leadership of the global car industry. Promoting green technologies will also help the country tackle its widespread and worsening pollution, even though the impact of electric vehicles will mostly be in mitigating the problem from getting worse.

Despite government backing since 2009, production is currently modest, to say the least. The goal is to be building half a million electric vehicles a year by the start of 2016 and twice that number by 2020.

To that end, the government has announced an industrial-policy boost. Central government departments and municipal administrations will have to allocate a third of their annual vehicle procurement to “new energy” vehicles. That covers hybrids as well as vehicles powered by hydrogen cells, but in practice means electric vehicles. Local authorities are also instructed to install charging stations — one for each electric vehicle on the road.

Some financial incentive for officials to follow these new directives seem inevitable, given the increasing pressure on local-authority budgets now land sales are a less readily available honeypot. Any subsidies will have to be carefully structured to ring fence them from any potential international trade disputes.

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